Saturday, June 18, 2011

Rank the projects according to each of the following methods : (i) Pay back (ii) ARR (iii) IRR and (iv) NPV- assuming discount rates of 10% and 30%


Ravi Co Ltd. is considering the following investment projects:

Cash flows (Rs.)

Projects
Year0
Year1
Year2
Year3
A
-10,000
+10,000
-
-
B
-10,000
+7,500
+7,500
-
C
-10,000
+2,000
+4,000
+12,000
D                            -10,000                    +10,000                  +3,000                       +3,000

a)  Rank the projects according to each of the following methods : (i) Pay back          (ii) ARR   (iii) IRR and
(iv) NPV- assuming discount rates of 10% and 30%
b)  Assuming that the projects are independent, which one should be accepted? If the projects are mutually exclusive, which project is the best?
(a) (I) Pay Bank Period =                       Initial cash out flow
Annual cash Inflow after tax

Project A = 10000 = 1 Year
10000

Project B = 10000 = 1.33 Years
7000
Project C
Year                       C.I.                          Cumulative C.I.
1                              2000                        2000
2                              4000                        6000
3                              12000                      22000

2 Years + (10000-6000) = 2.33 Years
12000
Project D
Year                       C.I.                          Cumulative C.I.
1                              10000                      10000
2                              3000                        13000
3                              3000                        16000

1 year

(a) (ii) Accounting Rate of Return (APR) = Average Income/Average Investment

Project A = (10000-10000)/10000 = 0
1                         2
Project B = (7500+7500-10000)/10000 = .5 or .50%

2                                  2
Project C =  (2000+4000+12000-10000)/10000 = .533 or 53.33%
3                         2

Project D = (10000+3000+3000-10000)/10000 = .4 or .40%
3                                       2


 

Net Cash Proceed includes recovery of investments also. Therefore net cash earnings are found by deducting initial investment.

(a) (iii) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
It is the rate of return at which Present Value of cash Inflow is equal to present value of cash outflow.



 
IRR = Low Rate + NPV at low Rate                                                               X (High Rate – Low Rate) NPV at low Rate – NPV at high Rate

Project A
Year                           PVF @10%                PVF@12%                C.I.                              PV @ 10%                 PV @ 12%
1                                 .909                             .893                            10000                          9090                            8930

Less: PV of outflow


 

10000                         10000


NPV                                                                                                                                     -910                           -1070
IRR = 10 + -910                          X (12-10) (-910-(-1070)
= 10 + (-1820)              = -11.375%
160

Since IRR is negative hence r =0%

Project B
Year                           PVF @30%                PVF@33%                C.I.                              PV @ 30%                 PV @ 33%
1                                 .769                             .752                            7500                            5768                            5640
2                                 .592                             .565                            7500                            4440                            4238
10208                       9878

Less: PV of
Cash Outflow

10000                         10000

208                            (-) 122

IRR = 30 +   208   X (33-30) (208-(-122))
= 30 + 624            =  31.89 say 32%
330


Project C

Year
PVF @26%
C.I.
PV @ 26%
PV @ 28%
1
.794
.761
2000
1588
1522
2
.630
.610
4000
2520
2440
3
.500
.477
12000
6000
5724


 




10108
9686
Less: PV of
Outflow



10000
10000
NPV



108
-314

IRR = 26 + 108                         X (28-26)
108-(-314)
= 26 + 216            =  26.51%
422


 

Project D
Year                           PVF @37%                PVF@38%                C.I.                              PV @ 37%                 PV @ 38%
1                                 .730                             .725                            10000                          7300                            7250
2                                 .533                             .525                            3000                            1599                            1575
3                                 .389                             .381                            3000                            1167                            1143

PVF of cash
Inflow
Less: PV of
Outflow

10066                         9968

10000                         10000

NPV                                                                                                                                      66                                -32
IRR = 37 +    66                       X(38-37)
66(-(-32)
= 37 + 66           = 37.67%
98



 
(a) (iv) Net Present Value NPV = PV of Cash Inflow – PV of Cash outflow
                                                                                
Project A
Year                           C.I.                              PV@10%                   PV@30%                   PV@10%                   PV@30%
1                                 10000                          .909                            .769                             9090                            7690
2                                 -
3                                 -


Less: PV of
Outflow

9090                           7690
10000                         10000

NPV                                                                                                                                      -910                            -2310


Project B

Year                           PVF@10%                 PVF@30%                C.I                               PV@10%                   PV@30%
1                                 .909                             .769                            7500                            6818                            5768
2                                 .826                             .592                            7500                            6195                            4440
3                                 .751                             .455                            -                                  -                                  -
13013                         10208

Less: PV of
Outflow


 

10000                         10000


NPV                                                                                                                                      3013                            208
Project C
Year                           PVF@10%                 PVF@30%                C.I                               PV@10%                   PV@30%
1                                 .908                             .769                            2000                            1818                            1538
2                                 .826                             .592                            4000                            3304                            2368
3                                 .751                             .455                            12000                          9012                            5460
14134                         9366



 
Less: PV of
Outflow

10000                         10000

NPV                                                                                                                                      4134                            -634
Project D
Year                           PVF@10%                 PVF@30%                C.I                               PV@10%                   PV@30%
1                                 .909                             .769                            10000                          9090                            7690
2                                 .826                             .592                            3000                            2478                            1776
3                                 .751                             .455                            3000                            2253                            1365
13821                         10831

Less: PV of
Outflow

10000                         10000

NPV                                                                                                                                      3821                            831
Projects are ranked as follow according to the various Method

Methods                                                  A                              B                             C                              D
Pay Back Period                                                                  1                              2                               3                              1
Accounting Rate of Return                                               4                              2                               1                              3
Internal Rate of Return                                                    4                              2                               3                              1
Net present Value (@10%)                                                4                               3                               1                              2
Net present Value  (@30%)                                               4                               2                               3                              1
b) Payback and ARR are unsound method for choosing between the investment Projects. Between the two times adjusted (DCF) investment criteria, NPV and IRR. NPV gives consistent results. If the Projects are independent (and there is no capital rationing) either IRR , NPV can be used since the same set of projects will be accepted by any of the methods.




In the given case, except Project A all the three projects should be accepted if the discount rate is 10%. Only project B & D should be undertaken if the discount rate is
30%

If it is assumed that the projects are mutually exclusive then under the assumption of 30% discount rate, the choice is between B and D, (A and C are unprofitable). Both criteria IRR and NPV give the same results D is the best. Under the assumption of 10% discount rate ranking according to IRR & NPV conflict (except for project A.) If the IRR rule is followed project D should be accepted. But the NPV rule tells that Project C is the best. The NPV rule generally gives consistent results in confirming with the wealth maximization principal. Therefore Project C should be accepted following the NPV rule.

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updated till june 2011